The Best Blog Ever

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Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Tuesday, October 31, 2006

If I were Boras

I would wait until the most rediculous starting pitching contract has been signed, until the precedent has been set, to have Matsuzaka be posted. That way he gets leverage even though he can only negotiate with one team. Of course, I hope he doesn't do this, but I bet he will, given he's a ruthless bastard. I've heard Sori's contract may go well above 100 million, which maybe isn't rediculous when you consider the current market, but I think it's gonna take a team that's either statistically inept or desperately in need of a star to sign him. Fortunately for him, there are plenty of teams like that out there.

In other news, it looks like the Yanks have at least one trade in line for Sheffield. They're holding out on a better offer, but it looks like he will be dealt before Sunday, the day Sheffield's option must be decided on. Cashman, for obvious reasons, won't pick up his option unless he knows he has a trade in order.

Thursday, October 26, 2006

Yanks pick up Sheff's option

Three possible explanations:

1) Since the Yanks know it's an inflated market, Sheff at 13 million for just one year is a great option. They actually intentend to play him at first, despite the fact that he doesn't want to.

2) They know Sheffield will demand a trade in which the other team signs him to a contract extension. This way, they at least get something back for Sheff, as to before when they would only get a compensatory draft pick (he might only be a B player since he barely played in 06).

3) They'll sign Sheff to an extension and keep him, and now they have exclusive negotiating rights.

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Sometimes things go EXACTLY as predicted

and then sometimes Oliver Perez and Jeff Suppan are locked in a duel through 4.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

I Hate Rudolfsky

For those you of you who are Jim Callis fanatics and read all his espn chats, you may have noticed that someone got in as "I Hate Rudolfsky (Wyoming)." The problem is, he responded by calling me Rudolfsky. I would just like to clear it up and say, I am not Rudolfsky, but I absolutely despise Rudolfsky. Thank you for listening.

A-Rod to the Cubs?

Being interesting in a player and acquiring him are two completely separate things, but it is interesting nevertheless that the Cubbies want A-Rod. They officially denied it after the story came out, but what else were they gonna do? I'm sure they'd love to have him. Pinella would love to acquire A-Rod, and the Cubs definitely want to acquire a big-name player.

The reason the Cubs intrigue me more than other teams is because the Yankees would almost definitely get equal value in return. Aramis Ramirez has the opportunity to opt out of his deal, but is still contractually tied to the Cubs for now. If the Yankees were given a window to negotiate with Ramirez after the trade was completed, they could renegotiate his contract and in essence sign him as a FA. The Cubs know they won't retain him so he would only be a small part of the deal. So how do you make up that huge gap? The Yankees will still want more, but the Cubs only have a few people that could fit in the deal. The Yanks wouldn't need any offensive positions except 1B, and the Cubs wouldn't give him up. So they would need to give a pitcher; i assume a quality starting pitcher. So they would either give Rich Hill, Mark Prior, or Carlos Zambrano. Any of those guys makes it worth doing that trade.

Unfortunately, it probably won't happen, but this is the avenue I'd like to see the Yankees take if they were going to trade A-Rod.

Saturday, October 14, 2006

The 2007 Offense

Predicting the pitching output for the 2007 is impossible, given only about half the spots are filled. However, unless the Yankees decide to be stupid and trade A-Rod, the offense will be very similar personnelwise to what it was in 2006. I'm gonna go position by position and predict 2007 production out of that position. Sometimes players split time between positions this year, so i took the percentage of their playing time at that position and multiplied it by their VORP. You'll see "(Rough Estimate)" when I did that. If the % games played was really small, i didn't include them. VORP is value over replacement player, basically meaning the runs created by a player above the typical scrub at that position. It only measures offense.

C -
2006: 27.7 VORP (Posada 37.2, Nieves -1.7, Stinnett -3.4, Fasano -4.8)
Jorge was great, but Stinnett and Fasano combined to more than cancel out the offensive production of Melky Cabrera. In 2007, Posada should regress at least a little bit, probably back to where he was around 2005 when he posted a 26.8 VORP. That still gives the Yanks an opportunity to do better than last year if they get a good backup catcher. Greg Zaun posted a 15.1 VORP this year, and even if we're assuming he'd have about 1/3 the PA he did last year, you'd still get a slight improvement at catcher. 2007: 31

1B -
2006 (Rough Estimate): 10.2 VORP (Giambi 23.15, 1.546 Sheff, .5769 Guiel, -.9721 Cairo, -6.2 Wilson, -7.9 Phillips,)
This one was the most surprising to me. The Yankees lost an enormous amount of production at first base from Wilson and Phillips. This year, with Giambi more likely to see even more time at DH, it's going to be especially important to get a competent, reasonably productive first baseman. I think they will, and that that person will play almost all their games there, so we'll see a big improvement here. 2007: 20

2B -
2006 (Rough): 43.5 (Cano 48.1, -3.6 Cairo, about -1 from assorted people)
Here's one position where production will probably go down. Even Cano is very young, it was still possible that at least part of his rapid improvement this year was due to a fluke. I think he'll still be one of the best hitters for average in the league, but probably not quite at his 2006 level. I think he'll stay injury-free this year, so fewer at bats from backups will help offset his slight decline. 2007: 38

2006(Rough): 49.4 (Rodriguez 50.4, about -1 from assorted people)
I really think that A-Rod is going to rebound. His 2007 will almost certainly be better than his 2006, which means he'll be very productive. 2007: 65

2006: 78.2 (Jeter 79.2, about -1 from assorted people)
Another position with decline in production. I just don't see any way Jeter is going to replicate 2006, but he's still gonna be a great hitter. 2007: 65

2006 (Rough): 16.4 (9.2 Matsui, 7.2 Melky)
Great improvement here too. Melky did an admirable job filling in, and provided much better defense than Matsui would have, but his offensive production is nowhere near Matsui's, whose VORP should be in the mid-40s. Expect Melky here as a defensive replacement, though. 2007: 43

2006 (Rough): 41.0 (41.0 Damon, about 0 from assorted people)
I don't see any reason for this to change significantly. Damon battled injuries this year, but he's also a year older, so those 2 factors should cancel each other out pretty evenly. 2007: 40

2006(Rough): 27.4 (23.2 Abreu, 5.154 Sheff, 3 Bernie, -4 Long, about 0 from assorted people)
You might think that this is what killed the Yankees in the first half of the year, but surprisingly the replacements weren't that bad, especially compared to C and 1B. There will still be a big jump, though, because of Bobby Abreu. Abreu's VORP total, when you combine his AL and NL totals, is about 48. However, Abreu produced about as much in the AL as he did in the NL, despite having a little more than 1/3 the AB or so. So which Abreu will we see in 07? Given his age, probably around the average of his two stints. 2007: 48

2006(Rough): 31.2 (23.15 Giambi, 8.1 Bernie, about 0 from assorted others)
I would have never believed that Bernie could have been this productive. If I had to guess how, it would probably be the fact that his shoulders finally stopped bothering him and he had more energy because he didn't have to play everyday. Definitely worth keeping around, if he wants to stay. However, he won't be starting. Giambi will probably play all of his games here, for even more production out of the DH slot than last year. 2007: 40

I added this just to add some negative VORPs assuming someone will have to fill in for a starter, and that fill-in, given the state of the Yankee farm system, will suck. 2007: -5

2006 VORP(Rough): 325
2007 VORP(Prediction): 385

Wow. Definitely not what I was expecting when I started to do this. Even with the loss of Sheffield and an aging team getting a year older, the Yankees still stand (by my very rough prediction) to gain another 60 runs, which is about 5 wins if the pitching stays the same. Keep in mind that that anything can happen, and this doesn't seem to help them much in the playoffs, but 2007 will be a very successful offensive season for the Yankees, especially if they get a good C backup and a good 1B.