I would wait until the most rediculous starting pitching contract has been signed, until the precedent has been set, to have Matsuzaka be posted. That way he gets leverage even though he can only negotiate with one team. Of course, I hope he doesn't do this, but I bet he will, given he's a ruthless bastard. I've heard Sori's contract may go well above 100 million, which maybe isn't rediculous when you consider the current market, but I think it's gonna take a team that's either statistically inept or desperately in need of a star to sign him. Fortunately for him, there are plenty of teams like that out there.
In other news, it looks like the Yanks have at least one trade in line for Sheffield. They're holding out on a better offer, but it looks like he will be dealt before Sunday, the day Sheffield's option must be decided on. Cashman, for obvious reasons, won't pick up his option unless he knows he has a trade in order.
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Thursday, October 26, 2006
Yanks pick up Sheff's option
Three possible explanations:
1) Since the Yanks know it's an inflated market, Sheff at 13 million for just one year is a great option. They actually intentend to play him at first, despite the fact that he doesn't want to.
2) They know Sheffield will demand a trade in which the other team signs him to a contract extension. This way, they at least get something back for Sheff, as to before when they would only get a compensatory draft pick (he might only be a B player since he barely played in 06).
3) They'll sign Sheff to an extension and keep him, and now they have exclusive negotiating rights.
1) Since the Yanks know it's an inflated market, Sheff at 13 million for just one year is a great option. They actually intentend to play him at first, despite the fact that he doesn't want to.
2) They know Sheffield will demand a trade in which the other team signs him to a contract extension. This way, they at least get something back for Sheff, as to before when they would only get a compensatory draft pick (he might only be a B player since he barely played in 06).
3) They'll sign Sheff to an extension and keep him, and now they have exclusive negotiating rights.
Thursday, October 19, 2006
Sometimes things go EXACTLY as predicted
and then sometimes Oliver Perez and Jeff Suppan are locked in a duel through 4.
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
I Hate Rudolfsky
For those you of you who are Jim Callis fanatics and read all his espn chats, you may have noticed that someone got in as "I Hate Rudolfsky (Wyoming)." The problem is, he responded by calling me Rudolfsky. I would just like to clear it up and say, I am not Rudolfsky, but I absolutely despise Rudolfsky. Thank you for listening.
A-Rod to the Cubs?
Being interesting in a player and acquiring him are two completely separate things, but it is interesting nevertheless that the Cubbies want A-Rod. They officially denied it after the story came out, but what else were they gonna do? I'm sure they'd love to have him. Pinella would love to acquire A-Rod, and the Cubs definitely want to acquire a big-name player.
The reason the Cubs intrigue me more than other teams is because the Yankees would almost definitely get equal value in return. Aramis Ramirez has the opportunity to opt out of his deal, but is still contractually tied to the Cubs for now. If the Yankees were given a window to negotiate with Ramirez after the trade was completed, they could renegotiate his contract and in essence sign him as a FA. The Cubs know they won't retain him so he would only be a small part of the deal. So how do you make up that huge gap? The Yankees will still want more, but the Cubs only have a few people that could fit in the deal. The Yanks wouldn't need any offensive positions except 1B, and the Cubs wouldn't give him up. So they would need to give a pitcher; i assume a quality starting pitcher. So they would either give Rich Hill, Mark Prior, or Carlos Zambrano. Any of those guys makes it worth doing that trade.
Unfortunately, it probably won't happen, but this is the avenue I'd like to see the Yankees take if they were going to trade A-Rod.
The reason the Cubs intrigue me more than other teams is because the Yankees would almost definitely get equal value in return. Aramis Ramirez has the opportunity to opt out of his deal, but is still contractually tied to the Cubs for now. If the Yankees were given a window to negotiate with Ramirez after the trade was completed, they could renegotiate his contract and in essence sign him as a FA. The Cubs know they won't retain him so he would only be a small part of the deal. So how do you make up that huge gap? The Yankees will still want more, but the Cubs only have a few people that could fit in the deal. The Yanks wouldn't need any offensive positions except 1B, and the Cubs wouldn't give him up. So they would need to give a pitcher; i assume a quality starting pitcher. So they would either give Rich Hill, Mark Prior, or Carlos Zambrano. Any of those guys makes it worth doing that trade.
Unfortunately, it probably won't happen, but this is the avenue I'd like to see the Yankees take if they were going to trade A-Rod.
Saturday, October 14, 2006
The 2007 Offense
Predicting the pitching output for the 2007 is impossible, given only about half the spots are filled. However, unless the Yankees decide to be stupid and trade A-Rod, the offense will be very similar personnelwise to what it was in 2006. I'm gonna go position by position and predict 2007 production out of that position. Sometimes players split time between positions this year, so i took the percentage of their playing time at that position and multiplied it by their VORP. You'll see "(Rough Estimate)" when I did that. If the % games played was really small, i didn't include them. VORP is value over replacement player, basically meaning the runs created by a player above the typical scrub at that position. It only measures offense.
C -
2006: 27.7 VORP (Posada 37.2, Nieves -1.7, Stinnett -3.4, Fasano -4.8)
Jorge was great, but Stinnett and Fasano combined to more than cancel out the offensive production of Melky Cabrera. In 2007, Posada should regress at least a little bit, probably back to where he was around 2005 when he posted a 26.8 VORP. That still gives the Yanks an opportunity to do better than last year if they get a good backup catcher. Greg Zaun posted a 15.1 VORP this year, and even if we're assuming he'd have about 1/3 the PA he did last year, you'd still get a slight improvement at catcher. 2007: 31
1B -
2006 (Rough Estimate): 10.2 VORP (Giambi 23.15, 1.546 Sheff, .5769 Guiel, -.9721 Cairo, -6.2 Wilson, -7.9 Phillips,)
This one was the most surprising to me. The Yankees lost an enormous amount of production at first base from Wilson and Phillips. This year, with Giambi more likely to see even more time at DH, it's going to be especially important to get a competent, reasonably productive first baseman. I think they will, and that that person will play almost all their games there, so we'll see a big improvement here. 2007: 20
2B -
2006 (Rough): 43.5 (Cano 48.1, -3.6 Cairo, about -1 from assorted people)
Here's one position where production will probably go down. Even Cano is very young, it was still possible that at least part of his rapid improvement this year was due to a fluke. I think he'll still be one of the best hitters for average in the league, but probably not quite at his 2006 level. I think he'll stay injury-free this year, so fewer at bats from backups will help offset his slight decline. 2007: 38
3B-
2006(Rough): 49.4 (Rodriguez 50.4, about -1 from assorted people)
I really think that A-Rod is going to rebound. His 2007 will almost certainly be better than his 2006, which means he'll be very productive. 2007: 65
SS-
2006: 78.2 (Jeter 79.2, about -1 from assorted people)
Another position with decline in production. I just don't see any way Jeter is going to replicate 2006, but he's still gonna be a great hitter. 2007: 65
LF-
2006 (Rough): 16.4 (9.2 Matsui, 7.2 Melky)
Great improvement here too. Melky did an admirable job filling in, and provided much better defense than Matsui would have, but his offensive production is nowhere near Matsui's, whose VORP should be in the mid-40s. Expect Melky here as a defensive replacement, though. 2007: 43
CF-
2006 (Rough): 41.0 (41.0 Damon, about 0 from assorted people)
I don't see any reason for this to change significantly. Damon battled injuries this year, but he's also a year older, so those 2 factors should cancel each other out pretty evenly. 2007: 40
RF-
2006(Rough): 27.4 (23.2 Abreu, 5.154 Sheff, 3 Bernie, -4 Long, about 0 from assorted people)
You might think that this is what killed the Yankees in the first half of the year, but surprisingly the replacements weren't that bad, especially compared to C and 1B. There will still be a big jump, though, because of Bobby Abreu. Abreu's VORP total, when you combine his AL and NL totals, is about 48. However, Abreu produced about as much in the AL as he did in the NL, despite having a little more than 1/3 the AB or so. So which Abreu will we see in 07? Given his age, probably around the average of his two stints. 2007: 48
DH
2006(Rough): 31.2 (23.15 Giambi, 8.1 Bernie, about 0 from assorted others)
I would have never believed that Bernie could have been this productive. If I had to guess how, it would probably be the fact that his shoulders finally stopped bothering him and he had more energy because he didn't have to play everyday. Definitely worth keeping around, if he wants to stay. However, he won't be starting. Giambi will probably play all of his games here, for even more production out of the DH slot than last year. 2007: 40
Bench-
I added this just to add some negative VORPs assuming someone will have to fill in for a starter, and that fill-in, given the state of the Yankee farm system, will suck. 2007: -5
2006 VORP(Rough): 325
2007 VORP(Prediction): 385
Wow. Definitely not what I was expecting when I started to do this. Even with the loss of Sheffield and an aging team getting a year older, the Yankees still stand (by my very rough prediction) to gain another 60 runs, which is about 5 wins if the pitching stays the same. Keep in mind that that anything can happen, and this doesn't seem to help them much in the playoffs, but 2007 will be a very successful offensive season for the Yankees, especially if they get a good C backup and a good 1B.
C -
2006: 27.7 VORP (Posada 37.2, Nieves -1.7, Stinnett -3.4, Fasano -4.8)
Jorge was great, but Stinnett and Fasano combined to more than cancel out the offensive production of Melky Cabrera. In 2007, Posada should regress at least a little bit, probably back to where he was around 2005 when he posted a 26.8 VORP. That still gives the Yanks an opportunity to do better than last year if they get a good backup catcher. Greg Zaun posted a 15.1 VORP this year, and even if we're assuming he'd have about 1/3 the PA he did last year, you'd still get a slight improvement at catcher. 2007: 31
1B -
2006 (Rough Estimate): 10.2 VORP (Giambi 23.15, 1.546 Sheff, .5769 Guiel, -.9721 Cairo, -6.2 Wilson, -7.9 Phillips,)
This one was the most surprising to me. The Yankees lost an enormous amount of production at first base from Wilson and Phillips. This year, with Giambi more likely to see even more time at DH, it's going to be especially important to get a competent, reasonably productive first baseman. I think they will, and that that person will play almost all their games there, so we'll see a big improvement here. 2007: 20
2B -
2006 (Rough): 43.5 (Cano 48.1, -3.6 Cairo, about -1 from assorted people)
Here's one position where production will probably go down. Even Cano is very young, it was still possible that at least part of his rapid improvement this year was due to a fluke. I think he'll still be one of the best hitters for average in the league, but probably not quite at his 2006 level. I think he'll stay injury-free this year, so fewer at bats from backups will help offset his slight decline. 2007: 38
3B-
2006(Rough): 49.4 (Rodriguez 50.4, about -1 from assorted people)
I really think that A-Rod is going to rebound. His 2007 will almost certainly be better than his 2006, which means he'll be very productive. 2007: 65
SS-
2006: 78.2 (Jeter 79.2, about -1 from assorted people)
Another position with decline in production. I just don't see any way Jeter is going to replicate 2006, but he's still gonna be a great hitter. 2007: 65
LF-
2006 (Rough): 16.4 (9.2 Matsui, 7.2 Melky)
Great improvement here too. Melky did an admirable job filling in, and provided much better defense than Matsui would have, but his offensive production is nowhere near Matsui's, whose VORP should be in the mid-40s. Expect Melky here as a defensive replacement, though. 2007: 43
CF-
2006 (Rough): 41.0 (41.0 Damon, about 0 from assorted people)
I don't see any reason for this to change significantly. Damon battled injuries this year, but he's also a year older, so those 2 factors should cancel each other out pretty evenly. 2007: 40
RF-
2006(Rough): 27.4 (23.2 Abreu, 5.154 Sheff, 3 Bernie, -4 Long, about 0 from assorted people)
You might think that this is what killed the Yankees in the first half of the year, but surprisingly the replacements weren't that bad, especially compared to C and 1B. There will still be a big jump, though, because of Bobby Abreu. Abreu's VORP total, when you combine his AL and NL totals, is about 48. However, Abreu produced about as much in the AL as he did in the NL, despite having a little more than 1/3 the AB or so. So which Abreu will we see in 07? Given his age, probably around the average of his two stints. 2007: 48
DH
2006(Rough): 31.2 (23.15 Giambi, 8.1 Bernie, about 0 from assorted others)
I would have never believed that Bernie could have been this productive. If I had to guess how, it would probably be the fact that his shoulders finally stopped bothering him and he had more energy because he didn't have to play everyday. Definitely worth keeping around, if he wants to stay. However, he won't be starting. Giambi will probably play all of his games here, for even more production out of the DH slot than last year. 2007: 40
Bench-
I added this just to add some negative VORPs assuming someone will have to fill in for a starter, and that fill-in, given the state of the Yankee farm system, will suck. 2007: -5
2006 VORP(Rough): 325
2007 VORP(Prediction): 385
Wow. Definitely not what I was expecting when I started to do this. Even with the loss of Sheffield and an aging team getting a year older, the Yankees still stand (by my very rough prediction) to gain another 60 runs, which is about 5 wins if the pitching stays the same. Keep in mind that that anything can happen, and this doesn't seem to help them much in the playoffs, but 2007 will be a very successful offensive season for the Yankees, especially if they get a good C backup and a good 1B.
Thursday, October 12, 2006
Happy Birthday
"Tanyon Time" Tanyon Sturtze. It'll always be Tanyon Time whether or not you're playing.
The Bell Tolls for Bellhorn
Never have I had a more tremendously irrational hatred towards someone like I do for Mark Bellhorn. When this man came to the Yankees it felt like somebody had just launched a brick straight through my groin. But now, now Mark Bellhorn has been released by the San Diego Padres. This event has given me a feeling of joy, but also a horrible fear, that fear being the Yankees won't re-sign Miguel Cairo and will re-sign Mark Bellhorn to take over backup infield duties. Nontheless, at least for now, I can rest in peace knowing that Mark Bellhorn is jobless.
On A-Rod
The amount of coverage that A-Rod has received over the past season is incredibly overblown, but does that mean there isn't anything to worry about? Of course not. A-Rod's VORP this year was 50.4, good for 29th in the league. That's a 40 point drop off from last year, and his worst ever in a full season. All the people who in response to the A-Rod coverage point out that he still had a good season are only partially right. Maybe it is a good season for almost anyone else, but for someone who has had his consistent level of success, it's a warning sign.
So the thing that the Yankees need to figure out is what's causing the slump and how it can be fixed. At this point it's fairly obvious, at least to me, that it's mental, but that's only the tip of the iceberg. If the problem is one that he can try to work on in the offseason, maybe see that therapist of his again, then the Yankees should certainly keep him. But if it's a problem with the pressure and his inability to handle it, a trade might be the best option.
Here's the key thing to remember, though: The Yankees only pay about 2/3rds of A-Rod's annual salary, on average. At the time when they aquired him, they owed him 112 million over 7 years. When you consider that Beltran was paid 7 million more when you include the signing bonus, A-Rod goes from the most overpaid player to a very reasonably paid one, at least from the Yanks' standpoint. Moose, Giambi, and Jeter were all paid more by the Yanks than A-Rod was, but only Jeter was more productive. So money really isn't an issue when you talk about trading him.
Personally, I wouldn't even think of trading A-Rod unless i got an unbelievable offer. This offseason, however, such an offer might be likely because of the weakness of the FA class. Sori and Lee might see 5 year, 80 million deals, and Alex has 4 year, 64 mil left and is almost guaranteed to be more productive than either. I still don't think that you'll see the 5-1 deals like with Schilling and Randy Johnson, though, which is what it would take to be worth getting rid of him. For now, keep him, and if he continues to struggle in '07, reconsider.
So the thing that the Yankees need to figure out is what's causing the slump and how it can be fixed. At this point it's fairly obvious, at least to me, that it's mental, but that's only the tip of the iceberg. If the problem is one that he can try to work on in the offseason, maybe see that therapist of his again, then the Yankees should certainly keep him. But if it's a problem with the pressure and his inability to handle it, a trade might be the best option.
Here's the key thing to remember, though: The Yankees only pay about 2/3rds of A-Rod's annual salary, on average. At the time when they aquired him, they owed him 112 million over 7 years. When you consider that Beltran was paid 7 million more when you include the signing bonus, A-Rod goes from the most overpaid player to a very reasonably paid one, at least from the Yanks' standpoint. Moose, Giambi, and Jeter were all paid more by the Yanks than A-Rod was, but only Jeter was more productive. So money really isn't an issue when you talk about trading him.
Personally, I wouldn't even think of trading A-Rod unless i got an unbelievable offer. This offseason, however, such an offer might be likely because of the weakness of the FA class. Sori and Lee might see 5 year, 80 million deals, and Alex has 4 year, 64 mil left and is almost guaranteed to be more productive than either. I still don't think that you'll see the 5-1 deals like with Schilling and Randy Johnson, though, which is what it would take to be worth getting rid of him. For now, keep him, and if he continues to struggle in '07, reconsider.
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
The Yankees farm system
Because of their outstanding major league staff, people often fail to look past the Yankees starting lineup and pitching, into the depths of their minor league system. But this minor league system is not just something to kill with the Sunday newspaper, oh no. This minor league system is composed of stars, and in this reporters opinion, these stars should immediately take over the jobs of people like Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera. Let's take a look:
Aaron Small: Ok, so maybe this guy has a career ERA of 5.20 and a career WHIP of 1.61...and ok, maybe he did do absolutely horrible in the minors this year. But in 2005, he went 10-0! People have to learn to look past every bad year someone has, and focus solely on their one good year! If there was a guy named Joe Robinson, who batted .350, with 50 HR and 150 RBI in his first year, and 20 years later he has a career .100 avg. with 51 HR and 151 RBI, I'd want him on my team!
Ramiro Mendoza: This guy hasn't had a good year since 2002...but doesn't that mean he's due? I mean, with a career 16 saves in 10 seasons, he's an easy candidate to dethrone Mariano Rivera for 2007.
Francisco Butto: Butt. Nice.
Caonabo Cosme: Similar to Butto...awesome name.
Carl Pava...........Wait, scratch that.
Felix Escalona: This guy played 15 games with the Yankees over 2 years from 2004-2005. If that doesn't make him deserve a spot on this team, I don't know what will.
Russ Johnson: The answer to the Yankees third base woes. A man who has averaged 6 HR and 43 RBI a year is the answer. I think Russ Johnson could be the cornerstone of a Yankees lineup, batting ahead of Jason Giambi (or his replacement) and behind...
BUBBA CROSBY: I mean come on, this is Bubba Crosby.
Terrence Long: This guy has an autograph that contains 14 swirly loops and 17 lines going in all different directions. I want a guy who can do that on my major league squad.
And finally...
Mo Vaughn: Ok, maybe he isn't a Yankee...and maybe he's been long retired...and mayyyyyybe he is too hurt to play any baseball...but still...
Aaron Small: Ok, so maybe this guy has a career ERA of 5.20 and a career WHIP of 1.61...and ok, maybe he did do absolutely horrible in the minors this year. But in 2005, he went 10-0! People have to learn to look past every bad year someone has, and focus solely on their one good year! If there was a guy named Joe Robinson, who batted .350, with 50 HR and 150 RBI in his first year, and 20 years later he has a career .100 avg. with 51 HR and 151 RBI, I'd want him on my team!
Ramiro Mendoza: This guy hasn't had a good year since 2002...but doesn't that mean he's due? I mean, with a career 16 saves in 10 seasons, he's an easy candidate to dethrone Mariano Rivera for 2007.
Francisco Butto: Butt. Nice.
Caonabo Cosme: Similar to Butto...awesome name.
Carl Pava...........Wait, scratch that.
Felix Escalona: This guy played 15 games with the Yankees over 2 years from 2004-2005. If that doesn't make him deserve a spot on this team, I don't know what will.
Russ Johnson: The answer to the Yankees third base woes. A man who has averaged 6 HR and 43 RBI a year is the answer. I think Russ Johnson could be the cornerstone of a Yankees lineup, batting ahead of Jason Giambi (or his replacement) and behind...
BUBBA CROSBY: I mean come on, this is Bubba Crosby.
Terrence Long: This guy has an autograph that contains 14 swirly loops and 17 lines going in all different directions. I want a guy who can do that on my major league squad.
And finally...
Mo Vaughn: Ok, maybe he isn't a Yankee...and maybe he's been long retired...and mayyyyyybe he is too hurt to play any baseball...but still...
Monday, October 09, 2006
Public Enemy Number 1
Another October, another lack of Yankees winning the World Series. Not a good situation for any Yankee fan or member of the Yankee organization. People are saying trade A-Rod, and Jim Caple is saying trade Jeter (idiot), and now Torre seems to be on his way out. Now, who's being blamed for this miserable failure despite one of, if not the best lineup of all time? Well, let's see:
Alex Rodriguez-Batted less than .090 in the playoffs, failed in some tremendously important situations (bases loaded in game 2 for example).
Joe Torre-Horrible in-game decisions, not starting Gary Sheffield game 3, Jason Giambi game 4.
The Yankees team in general-Horrible production offensively, as well as defensive and pitching collapses.
Now, these seem like the big three to blame, but people are blind to who the true enemy of the Yankees is. The real cancer of the Yankees, is none other than...Suzyn Waldman. Think about it, since Suzyn Waldman has started to get a prominant role in the Yankees announcing team, whether it were the clubhouse interviews in the early 2000s, or her current radio broadcasts, the Yankees playoffs have gone downhill. From the 90s through 2001, John Sterling and Michael Kay held the Yankees together thanks to their amazing radio broadcasting abilities. 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000...years the Yankees won the World Series...and years that this team was broadcasting on Yankees radio. Coincidence, I think not. Even in 2001, Kay and Sterling's final year together on the radio, the Yankees were 2 outs away from winning the World Series. Then in 2002, Charlie Steiner replaced Kay on the radio. But this was also the year, that Waldman was moving up the ranks. Her influence on the locker room burned into the souls of the players. However, from 2002-2003, one may have thought that the players were getting past the curse of Waldman. 2002, a loss to the Angels in the division series. 2003, a loss to the Marlins in the World Series. They seemed to become immune to Suzyn's interviews, by reaching the World Series. But then...in October 2004, after learning Waldman would take over Steiner's position in the radio booth for 2005: This. This collapse was the beginning of future miserable failures for the Yankees under Suzyn Waldman's dictator-like reign. 2005, the Yankees just squeeze by the Red Sox for first place in the Al East, and then fail horribly in the ALDS losing to Anaheim. Then comes 2006, a year into it, and Suzyn strikes Matsui down with a broken wrist, and throws Sheffield off the shelf until the end of the year. Then a loss to Detroit in the 2006 ALDS. So I say, open your eyes America, get rid of the real enemy, and fire Suzyn Waldman.
Alex Rodriguez-Batted less than .090 in the playoffs, failed in some tremendously important situations (bases loaded in game 2 for example).
Joe Torre-Horrible in-game decisions, not starting Gary Sheffield game 3, Jason Giambi game 4.
The Yankees team in general-Horrible production offensively, as well as defensive and pitching collapses.
Now, these seem like the big three to blame, but people are blind to who the true enemy of the Yankees is. The real cancer of the Yankees, is none other than...Suzyn Waldman. Think about it, since Suzyn Waldman has started to get a prominant role in the Yankees announcing team, whether it were the clubhouse interviews in the early 2000s, or her current radio broadcasts, the Yankees playoffs have gone downhill. From the 90s through 2001, John Sterling and Michael Kay held the Yankees together thanks to their amazing radio broadcasting abilities. 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000...years the Yankees won the World Series...and years that this team was broadcasting on Yankees radio. Coincidence, I think not. Even in 2001, Kay and Sterling's final year together on the radio, the Yankees were 2 outs away from winning the World Series. Then in 2002, Charlie Steiner replaced Kay on the radio. But this was also the year, that Waldman was moving up the ranks. Her influence on the locker room burned into the souls of the players. However, from 2002-2003, one may have thought that the players were getting past the curse of Waldman. 2002, a loss to the Angels in the division series. 2003, a loss to the Marlins in the World Series. They seemed to become immune to Suzyn's interviews, by reaching the World Series. But then...in October 2004, after learning Waldman would take over Steiner's position in the radio booth for 2005: This. This collapse was the beginning of future miserable failures for the Yankees under Suzyn Waldman's dictator-like reign. 2005, the Yankees just squeeze by the Red Sox for first place in the Al East, and then fail horribly in the ALDS losing to Anaheim. Then comes 2006, a year into it, and Suzyn strikes Matsui down with a broken wrist, and throws Sheffield off the shelf until the end of the year. Then a loss to Detroit in the 2006 ALDS. So I say, open your eyes America, get rid of the real enemy, and fire Suzyn Waldman.
Sunday, October 08, 2006
The Offseason Begins (for the Yankees)
With 2006 over for the Yankees, there's nothing left to do but analyze what's gonna be done over the off season. Let's start out with who they have now:
C- Posada
1B -
2B - Cano
3B - Rodriguez
SS - Jeter
LF - Matsui
CF - Damon
RF - Abreu
DH - Giambi
BN - Melky
BN - Phillips
SP - Wang
SP - Johnson
SP - Pavano :-(
SP -
SP -
CL - Mo
RP - Farnsworth
RP - Proctor
RP - Myers
That's about 140 million already devoted to next year. I think that they're willing to add up to 40 million. That money will be used to find a first baseman, between 2 and 4 starting pitchers, assorted bench players, and middle relief. The one advantage that the Yankees have in this market, besides their infinitely deep pockets, is their specific needs. Nearly all the teams that are going to spend a whole lot of money have starting first basemen in place. Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Torii Hunter, Julio Lugo, etc. will certainly not be offered contracts from the Yankees and will drain the budget of other teams. However, the need for SP is almost universal among the big spenders.
First Base: Nomar Garciaparra and Gary Sheffield are two big names that could be on the roster next year. But I think Nomar will want to stay on the West Coast, and Sheff is going to go play right field for someone else (Red Sox?) after the Yanks have declined his option. The list gets a lot thinner after that, but I think the Yankees will find their man in the Central League of Japan: Korean slugger Seung-Yeop Lee. Seung-Yeop gained a lot of visibility after his strong WBC showing, but I haven't heard his name since. His Central League numbers are excellent: .325/.390/.619, with 41 HR. The Yankees are reportedly interested in him. If he's not available, expect them to go with a cheaper option like Scott Hatteburg or Travis Lee.
Starting Pitcher: Here's where it gets crazy. There are only three what i consider to be top-tier starting pitchers: Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt, and Diasuke Matsuzaka. Matsuzaka is a 26 year old pitcher from the Pacific League who has been absolutely unbelievable over the past few years. In my opinion, he's the best out of these three guys. The Yankees will almost certianly aquire one of the three, and there's no doubt that it will be expensive. The Mets, Mariners, Red Sox, Rangers and probably many other teams are going to be in the running. Not only that, but to get the rights to sign Matsuzaka, a team will have to pay his current team, Seibu, a posting fee that is expected to be as much as $30 million. Then you add in the fact that Scott Boras has both Zito and Matsuzaka as clients. It will certainly be interesting, and I can't see the Yankees affording to get more than one of the top tier.
The middle group is small as well. Mike Mussina is near the top of the group, and he has expressed his desire to stay with New York. Most estimates I've heard call for a 2 to 3 year deal worth 10 million a year, which is okay given that the Yankees are paying Carl Pavano that much to sit on his ass and get injured. Jaret Wright would only cost an extra 3 million to keep, but I'm not sure if he's even worth it, and with the taste of his dreadful game 4 start still strong with the Yankees' front office, he may see his option declined. Other guys come with significant risk, such as Kerry Wood and Mark Mulder. There are some others here such as Gil Meche, Vincente Padilla, and Cory Lidle that could be with the team in 07.
Relievers: This is a very thin group. Eric Gagne is here, but he's a huge risk, and I don't think he'll ever come near his 2002-2004 form again. Octavio Dotel is going to be paid closer money by another team. Brian Bruney and Ron Villone should be re-signed as early as possible before they get on the market and get large offers from other teams. Phil Hughes could start out here as well, to ease him into the big leagues. Another thought, although i highly doubt this will happen: Why not move Jaret Wright or RJ to the pen? Wright's main problems are stamina and health, which aren't going to be as much of a problem if he's used well. If Randy only pitched an inning a game, he could get up to 98 consistently and solve the Yankees' problem of not having a lefty that can go a full inning in the pen.
Bench - They'll find some options here and there, but the most important thing would be not to make the same mistake they did last year, which was sign relatively expensive guys like Miguel Cairo. They might as well give some of their minor leaguers a chance, considering how little of an effect utility infielders have on the game (esp. with their infield). The one exception here is backup catcher. They need to find someone that can hit to give Jorge more rest. Bernie should probably find his way back here too, if he wants to play next year.
So that's the offseason outline. It'll be interesting to see what happens.
C- Posada
1B -
2B - Cano
3B - Rodriguez
SS - Jeter
LF - Matsui
CF - Damon
RF - Abreu
DH - Giambi
BN - Melky
BN - Phillips
SP - Wang
SP - Johnson
SP - Pavano :-(
SP -
SP -
CL - Mo
RP - Farnsworth
RP - Proctor
RP - Myers
That's about 140 million already devoted to next year. I think that they're willing to add up to 40 million. That money will be used to find a first baseman, between 2 and 4 starting pitchers, assorted bench players, and middle relief. The one advantage that the Yankees have in this market, besides their infinitely deep pockets, is their specific needs. Nearly all the teams that are going to spend a whole lot of money have starting first basemen in place. Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Torii Hunter, Julio Lugo, etc. will certainly not be offered contracts from the Yankees and will drain the budget of other teams. However, the need for SP is almost universal among the big spenders.
First Base: Nomar Garciaparra and Gary Sheffield are two big names that could be on the roster next year. But I think Nomar will want to stay on the West Coast, and Sheff is going to go play right field for someone else (Red Sox?) after the Yanks have declined his option. The list gets a lot thinner after that, but I think the Yankees will find their man in the Central League of Japan: Korean slugger Seung-Yeop Lee. Seung-Yeop gained a lot of visibility after his strong WBC showing, but I haven't heard his name since. His Central League numbers are excellent: .325/.390/.619, with 41 HR. The Yankees are reportedly interested in him. If he's not available, expect them to go with a cheaper option like Scott Hatteburg or Travis Lee.
Starting Pitcher: Here's where it gets crazy. There are only three what i consider to be top-tier starting pitchers: Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt, and Diasuke Matsuzaka. Matsuzaka is a 26 year old pitcher from the Pacific League who has been absolutely unbelievable over the past few years. In my opinion, he's the best out of these three guys. The Yankees will almost certianly aquire one of the three, and there's no doubt that it will be expensive. The Mets, Mariners, Red Sox, Rangers and probably many other teams are going to be in the running. Not only that, but to get the rights to sign Matsuzaka, a team will have to pay his current team, Seibu, a posting fee that is expected to be as much as $30 million. Then you add in the fact that Scott Boras has both Zito and Matsuzaka as clients. It will certainly be interesting, and I can't see the Yankees affording to get more than one of the top tier.
The middle group is small as well. Mike Mussina is near the top of the group, and he has expressed his desire to stay with New York. Most estimates I've heard call for a 2 to 3 year deal worth 10 million a year, which is okay given that the Yankees are paying Carl Pavano that much to sit on his ass and get injured. Jaret Wright would only cost an extra 3 million to keep, but I'm not sure if he's even worth it, and with the taste of his dreadful game 4 start still strong with the Yankees' front office, he may see his option declined. Other guys come with significant risk, such as Kerry Wood and Mark Mulder. There are some others here such as Gil Meche, Vincente Padilla, and Cory Lidle that could be with the team in 07.
Relievers: This is a very thin group. Eric Gagne is here, but he's a huge risk, and I don't think he'll ever come near his 2002-2004 form again. Octavio Dotel is going to be paid closer money by another team. Brian Bruney and Ron Villone should be re-signed as early as possible before they get on the market and get large offers from other teams. Phil Hughes could start out here as well, to ease him into the big leagues. Another thought, although i highly doubt this will happen: Why not move Jaret Wright or RJ to the pen? Wright's main problems are stamina and health, which aren't going to be as much of a problem if he's used well. If Randy only pitched an inning a game, he could get up to 98 consistently and solve the Yankees' problem of not having a lefty that can go a full inning in the pen.
Bench - They'll find some options here and there, but the most important thing would be not to make the same mistake they did last year, which was sign relatively expensive guys like Miguel Cairo. They might as well give some of their minor leaguers a chance, considering how little of an effect utility infielders have on the game (esp. with their infield). The one exception here is backup catcher. They need to find someone that can hit to give Jorge more rest. Bernie should probably find his way back here too, if he wants to play next year.
So that's the offseason outline. It'll be interesting to see what happens.
Joe Torre
If the report is true, Joe Torre looks to be on his way out, directly because of Steinbrenner. If it's true, Lou Pinella is probably the best option availible, which is good considering the Boss seems to only be considering him for the job. If Steinbrenner is pissed enough to fire Torre, I would guess that he'd be willing to spend some serious cash on pitching in the offseason.
If it is the end for Joe, it was a great 11 years.
If it is the end for Joe, it was a great 11 years.
Saturday, October 07, 2006
Pitching Wins
People always say that pitching wins in the playoffs, but when they analyze a match-up it always seems that this is ignored. I put myself in this group. The Tigers clearly had a better staff and a much better pen, but I was distracted by the Yankees' great offense. If you look at what things help teams succeed in the playoffs, virtually any pitching stat helps. There is no correlation between playoff success and offense. None. And if you think about it, it makes sense. When a pitcher is on, he's gonna pitch a good game. I always hear, "Well, he didn't have his best stuff, but he got the job done" but never, "He had great stuff today, but the offense was just too good".
And this is why even in a league without a salary cap, there's some inherent parity in baseball, especially in the playoffs. It's easy to buy offense (Giambi, Sheff, Matsui, A-Rod, Abreu, etc.) but very hard to buy good pitching (Wright, Pavano, RJ, Contreras). People have attributed the Yankees' playoff failure the past 6 years to the lack of "true" Yankees, which is a load of crap. Each year, from 2001-2006, the Yankees were beat by a team with better pitching.
Let's apply this to the remaining match-ups. The Mets don't look good SP-wise, but they're in pretty good shape, given none of the other 3 NL playoff teams have a really good rotation 1-4. The Mets are clearly the dominant team in the playoffs, but they have Oliver Perez in their starting rotation. A heavily flawed team can easily be the best team in the NL, which is a problem. The Mets are my pick to win the NL pennant. The "Real" World Series, so to speak, is the ALCS. Both the Tigers and the A's are going to be better than whoever comes out of the NL. I would say that the Tigers will win in 6 games, and go on to win it all.
And this is why even in a league without a salary cap, there's some inherent parity in baseball, especially in the playoffs. It's easy to buy offense (Giambi, Sheff, Matsui, A-Rod, Abreu, etc.) but very hard to buy good pitching (Wright, Pavano, RJ, Contreras). People have attributed the Yankees' playoff failure the past 6 years to the lack of "true" Yankees, which is a load of crap. Each year, from 2001-2006, the Yankees were beat by a team with better pitching.
Let's apply this to the remaining match-ups. The Mets don't look good SP-wise, but they're in pretty good shape, given none of the other 3 NL playoff teams have a really good rotation 1-4. The Mets are clearly the dominant team in the playoffs, but they have Oliver Perez in their starting rotation. A heavily flawed team can easily be the best team in the NL, which is a problem. The Mets are my pick to win the NL pennant. The "Real" World Series, so to speak, is the ALCS. Both the Tigers and the A's are going to be better than whoever comes out of the NL. I would say that the Tigers will win in 6 games, and go on to win it all.
Thursday, September 28, 2006
Yankees Playoff Roster
There's nothing of interest going on for the Yanks between now and the start of the playoffs that they can control, except for two things: The battle for home field, and who is actually going to be on the playoff roster. With the Tigers losing this afternoon and the Yankees owning the tiebreaker vs. both them and the Twins, home field looks extremely likely. So there's not much to talk about besides the playoff roster.
You'll have your starting 8 fielders (Posada, Giambi, Cano, A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui, Damon, and Abreu) along with Gary Sheffield as the DH. Then there are the 4 starters (Wang, Moose, RJ, and Wright). That's 13 players, so there are 12 spots left to fill. They're going to have to bring Cairo as the utility IF and Fasano as a backup catcher. Melky certainly deserves a spot as a late inning defensive replacement, and regardless of whether or not Bernie Williams deserves a spot (I think he does, for the record), there's no way Torre is going to leave him off the playoff roster. Aaron Guiel gets in over Craig Wilson, since Torre is playing him more. What will most likely likely happen is that both of them will make it on there. That leaves 7 spots for the bullpen, which Torre has said he's going to opt for.
The shoo-ins: Mo will close, Farnsworth and Brian Bruney, from out of nowhere, will set up, and Proctor will pitch anytime, anywhere until his arm falls off (which unfortunately is going to come fairly soon), and Cory Lidle, who is the only guy the Yankees will have who can go for a while. Mike Myers will be there as a LOOGY, for whatever reason.
That leaves just 1 spot for the other 7 pitchers currently on the Yankees' roster. We can rule out TJ Beam, Sean Henn, and Jose Veras easily. Octavio Dotel, who could have been a huge help, clearly isn't ready for prime time. That leaves Ron Villone, Jeff Karstens, and Darrell Rasner. Two months ago, this wouldn't have been a question. However, Villone has been so incredibly bad since August that it might be necessary to have someone else on the roster. If either one of Rasner or Karstens has an absolutely great start in the next few days, I wouldn't be surprised to see them make it. However, since Villone is a lefty, I think that Torre will put him on the roster if they don't come through.
You'll have your starting 8 fielders (Posada, Giambi, Cano, A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui, Damon, and Abreu) along with Gary Sheffield as the DH. Then there are the 4 starters (Wang, Moose, RJ, and Wright). That's 13 players, so there are 12 spots left to fill. They're going to have to bring Cairo as the utility IF and Fasano as a backup catcher. Melky certainly deserves a spot as a late inning defensive replacement, and regardless of whether or not Bernie Williams deserves a spot (I think he does, for the record), there's no way Torre is going to leave him off the playoff roster. Aaron Guiel gets in over Craig Wilson, since Torre is playing him more. What will most likely likely happen is that both of them will make it on there. That leaves 7 spots for the bullpen, which Torre has said he's going to opt for.
The shoo-ins: Mo will close, Farnsworth and Brian Bruney, from out of nowhere, will set up, and Proctor will pitch anytime, anywhere until his arm falls off (which unfortunately is going to come fairly soon), and Cory Lidle, who is the only guy the Yankees will have who can go for a while. Mike Myers will be there as a LOOGY, for whatever reason.
That leaves just 1 spot for the other 7 pitchers currently on the Yankees' roster. We can rule out TJ Beam, Sean Henn, and Jose Veras easily. Octavio Dotel, who could have been a huge help, clearly isn't ready for prime time. That leaves Ron Villone, Jeff Karstens, and Darrell Rasner. Two months ago, this wouldn't have been a question. However, Villone has been so incredibly bad since August that it might be necessary to have someone else on the roster. If either one of Rasner or Karstens has an absolutely great start in the next few days, I wouldn't be surprised to see them make it. However, since Villone is a lefty, I think that Torre will put him on the roster if they don't come through.
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