The Offseason Begins (for the Yankees)

With 2006 over for the Yankees, there's nothing left to do but analyze what's gonna be done over the off season. Let's start out with who they have now:

C- Posada
1B -
2B - Cano
3B - Rodriguez
SS - Jeter
LF - Matsui
CF - Damon
RF - Abreu
DH - Giambi
BN - Melky
BN - Phillips


SP - Wang
SP - Johnson
SP - Pavano :-(
SP -
SP -
CL - Mo
RP - Farnsworth
RP - Proctor
RP - Myers

That's about 140 million already devoted to next year. I think that they're willing to add up to 40 million. That money will be used to find a first baseman, between 2 and 4 starting pitchers, assorted bench players, and middle relief. The one advantage that the Yankees have in this market, besides their infinitely deep pockets, is their specific needs. Nearly all the teams that are going to spend a whole lot of money have starting first basemen in place. Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Torii Hunter, Julio Lugo, etc. will certainly not be offered contracts from the Yankees and will drain the budget of other teams. However, the need for SP is almost universal among the big spenders.


First Base: Nomar Garciaparra and Gary Sheffield are two big names that could be on the roster next year. But I think Nomar will want to stay on the West Coast, and Sheff is going to go play right field for someone else (Red Sox?) after the Yanks have declined his option. The list gets a lot thinner after that, but I think the Yankees will find their man in the Central League of Japan: Korean slugger Seung-Yeop Lee. Seung-Yeop gained a lot of visibility after his strong WBC showing, but I haven't heard his name since. His Central League numbers are excellent: .325/.390/.619, with 41 HR. The Yankees are reportedly interested in him. If he's not available, expect them to go with a cheaper option like Scott Hatteburg or Travis Lee.

Starting Pitcher: Here's where it gets crazy. There are only three what i consider to be top-tier starting pitchers: Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt, and Diasuke Matsuzaka. Matsuzaka is a 26 year old pitcher from the Pacific League who has been absolutely unbelievable over the past few years. In my opinion, he's the best out of these three guys. The Yankees will almost certianly aquire one of the three, and there's no doubt that it will be expensive. The Mets, Mariners, Red Sox, Rangers and probably many other teams are going to be in the running. Not only that, but to get the rights to sign Matsuzaka, a team will have to pay his current team, Seibu, a posting fee that is expected to be as much as $30 million. Then you add in the fact that Scott Boras has both Zito and Matsuzaka as clients. It will certainly be interesting, and I can't see the Yankees affording to get more than one of the top tier.

The middle group is small as well. Mike Mussina is near the top of the group, and he has expressed his desire to stay with New York. Most estimates I've heard call for a 2 to 3 year deal worth 10 million a year, which is okay given that the Yankees are paying Carl Pavano that much to sit on his ass and get injured. Jaret Wright would only cost an extra 3 million to keep, but I'm not sure if he's even worth it, and with the taste of his dreadful game 4 start still strong with the Yankees' front office, he may see his option declined. Other guys come with significant risk, such as Kerry Wood and Mark Mulder. There are some others here such as Gil Meche, Vincente Padilla, and Cory Lidle that could be with the team in 07.

Relievers: This is a very thin group. Eric Gagne is here, but he's a huge risk, and I don't think he'll ever come near his 2002-2004 form again. Octavio Dotel is going to be paid closer money by another team. Brian Bruney and Ron Villone should be re-signed as early as possible before they get on the market and get large offers from other teams. Phil Hughes could start out here as well, to ease him into the big leagues. Another thought, although i highly doubt this will happen: Why not move Jaret Wright or RJ to the pen? Wright's main problems are stamina and health, which aren't going to be as much of a problem if he's used well. If Randy only pitched an inning a game, he could get up to 98 consistently and solve the Yankees' problem of not having a lefty that can go a full inning in the pen.

Bench - They'll find some options here and there, but the most important thing would be not to make the same mistake they did last year, which was sign relatively expensive guys like Miguel Cairo. They might as well give some of their minor leaguers a chance, considering how little of an effect utility infielders have on the game (esp. with their infield). The one exception here is backup catcher. They need to find someone that can hit to give Jorge more rest. Bernie should probably find his way back here too, if he wants to play next year.

So that's the offseason outline. It'll be interesting to see what happens.